By William Schroeder, LPC, NCC and clinically reviewed by Teri Schroeder, LCSW
Quick Summary: Wondering how to know if your relationship will last? Compatibility tests, personality types, and shared hobbies barely predict it. Decades of research point to three habits that do:
- Turning toward your partner’s small bids for connection.
- Choosing kindness during conflict.
- Dedication that keeps both habits going when they get hard.
The clearest warning sign runs the other way: contempt, one of four patterns researchers call the Four Horsemen. The good news is that all of this is made of skills you can build, starting today.
Most people want a clean yes or no. Marry this person, or walk away now. The honest answer is that no perfect compatibility test, Myers-Briggs combination, or zodiac chart will give you one. What predicts whether a relationship will last isn’t who you picked. It’s how the two of you treat each other in the small moments most couples never notice.
That’s actually good news. Those moments can be observed, learned, and measured. Researchers have studied exactly this for more than 40 years, and the same patterns keep showing up in the couples who make it and the couples who don’t.
Can you actually predict whether a relationship will last?
Yes, more than most people assume. Researchers who watch how partners respond to each other can predict relationship outcomes with surprising accuracy, sometimes after just a few minutes of observation. What they measure isn’t compatibility or shared interests. It’s behavior: how two people treat each other in real time.
Starting in the 1970s and 80s, psychologist John Gottman and his colleague Robert Levenson ran a research program at the University of Washington, often called the “Love Lab.” They recorded couples as they talked, argued, and reconnected, then tracked them for years. By watching how partners interacted, Gottman’s team reported they could predict which couples would divorce with striking accuracy.
One study makes the point sharply. Researchers coded a conflict conversation between 124 newlywed couples and found that the first three minutes alone predicted which couples would divorce over the next six years. How an argument starts tells you a lot about how the relationship is going. A “harsh startup,” opening a disagreement with blame or sarcasm, tends to set the tone for everything after it.
What’s telling is what they watched. They weren’t measuring how much couples had in common or how well their personalities matched. They were measuring how partners responded to each other moment to moment. Durability comes from behavior, not background.
How to know if your relationship will last: three signs
The three signs a relationship will last are turning toward each other’s bids for connection, showing kindness under stress, and a shared dedication that keeps both habits alive when they get hard. The first two come straight from Gottman’s research. The third is what we see hold them together in the couples we work with.
Here’s what each one looks like in practice.
What does “turning toward bids for connection” mean?
A bid for connection is any small attempt to get your partner’s attention, affection, or support. It can be as minor as pointing out a bird at the window, sighing after a long day, or sending a link with no message attached. Each bid is a quiet question: are you there with me?
The everyday response to these bids is what separates couples who last from couples who don’t. In Gottman’s six-year study of newlyweds, couples who stayed together turned toward each other’s bids about 86% of the time, while couples who later divorced did so only 33% of the time. The couples who lasted weren’t making grand romantic gestures. They were answering the small ones, day after day.
This is why “we just drifted apart” is so common. Drifting apart is rarely one big rupture. It’s thousands of unanswered bids, each one teaching a partner that reaching out isn’t worth it.
Kindness is the strongest protector, especially during conflict
Kindness matters most precisely when it’s hardest to offer, which is during conflict. Gottman named four communication patterns so corrosive he called them the “Four Horsemen”: criticism, contempt, defensiveness, and stonewalling (more on each below). Of the four, contempt is the single strongest predictor of divorce.
The flip side is the encouraging part. If contempt is the strongest sign of trouble, its opposite is protective. Writer Emily Esfahani Smith captured this in her widely read Atlantic piece, “Masters of Love,” which summed up decades of research as a matter of kindness and generosity. Couples who stay warm and respectful even mid-argument build a reserve of goodwill that the relationship can draw on later.
Kindness isn’t a fixed personality trait you either have or you don’t. It’s a choice, and the moment it counts most is the moment your partner is hardest to be kind to.
Dedication is what makes the first two possible
Dedication is the decision to put the relationship ahead of your own comfort in the moment. Turning toward a bid when you’re exhausted takes dedication. Choosing kindness when you’d rather win the argument takes dedication. Neither one happens reliably by accident.
Consider two long friendships. In one, the connection was effortless from day one. In the other, it started with real friction and misunderstanding, and the two people grew close only because they decided the relationship mattered more than being right. Decades later, both friendships are equally strong. The difference at the start wasn’t compatibility. It was that in the harder friendship, both people kept choosing each other.
Romantic relationships work the same way. When both partners are dedicated to building each other up, kindness and connection feed each other. The more you show up, the more your partner does, and the loop keeps going, even through conflict.
Stuck having the same fight on repeat? That’s the kind of pattern couples counseling is built to interrupt. Talk to a Just Mind counselor.
Will my relationship last? Watch for the Four Horsemen
If the three habits above predict a relationship will last, the Four Horsemen predict the opposite. When people ask me “will my relationship last?”, these are the patterns I listen for first. Gottman’s research also looks at harsh startup, flooding (feeling so overwhelmed mid-argument that you can’t think straight), and body language, but the Horsemen are where most couples can start making changes this week.
Criticism
Criticizing our partner is different from offering a critique or having a complaint. The latter two are about specific issues, whereas criticism attacks our partner at the core. In effect, we are dismantling his or her whole being. A complaint is about something your partner did. Criticism is about who they are.
A complaint: “I was scared when you were running late and didn’t call me. I thought we had agreed that we would do that for each other.”
A criticism: “You never think about how your behavior is affecting other people. I don’t believe you are that forgetful; you just don’t think about me.”
Contempt
When we communicate from contempt, we are being mean, treating our partner with disrespect through sarcasm, ridicule, name-calling, or body language such as eye-rolling. The partner feels despised and worthless. Contempt is toxic and cannot be balanced out with anything else. It has to be eliminated.
“I’ve been with the kids all day, running around like mad to keep this house going, and all you do when you come home from work is flop down on that sofa and become a couch potato. You are just about the sorriest excuse for a husband I can think of.”
Defensiveness
This is an easy one to fall into. We feel accused of something and think that if we tell our partner our excuse, he or she will back off. But the excuse just tells our partner that we haven’t considered anything they said. By defending ourselves, we end up ignoring our partner.
She: “Did you call Betty and Ralph to let them know we’re not coming tonight, like you said you would this morning?”
He: “I was just too darn busy today. As a matter of fact, you knew how busy my schedule was. Why didn’t you just do it?”
He not only responds defensively but turns the tables and makes it her fault. A non-defensive response would have been: “Oops, I forgot. I should have asked you this morning to do it because I knew my day would be packed. Let me call them right now.”
Stonewalling
When we stonewall, we avoid conflict, either because we are unaware of our own feelings or because we are afraid. Rather than dealing with the issues (which tend to pile up), we make evasive maneuvers such as tuning out, turning away, staying busy, or engaging in obsessive behaviors. We simply stop engaging in the business of relating to another person.
Each horseman has an antidote
Gottman’s team pairs each pattern with a specific antidote. Swap criticism for a gentle startup that names your feeling and a need. Replace contempt with a habit of appreciation. Answer defensiveness by taking responsibility for even a small part of the problem. And when you notice yourself stonewalling, ask for a real break to calm your body down (Gottman calls this physiological self-soothing), then come back to the conversation.
Having these patterns show up doesn’t mean the relationship can’t be saved. It means it could use some work. Learning how to fight right is a process, and guidance helps. Our posts on three simple ways to have a happy relationship and why winning the argument costs you are good next steps.
What doesn’t predict whether a relationship will last?
A surprising amount of what people worry about turns out to barely matter. Personality-type matches like Myers-Briggs, introvert-and-extrovert pairings, zodiac compatibility, and the number of hobbies you share are weak predictors at best. Couples with very different temperaments last all the time, and couples who look perfectly matched on paper split all the time.
In fact, even the makers of the Myers-Briggs assessment say a personality test can’t predict whether your relationship will succeed. That’s freeing. The durability of your relationship isn’t locked in by traits you can’t change. It’s shaped by behaviors you can.
How do you make a relationship last?
You make a relationship last by practicing the three signs on purpose instead of waiting for them to happen. Notice and answer your partner’s bids, catch contempt early (in yourself first), lead with kindness during disagreements, and say out loud that the relationship is worth the effort.
A few concrete starting points:
- Notice and answer bids. For one week, watch for your partner’s small attempts to connect, and respond to them. Put the phone down when they start talking.
- Watch for contempt, in yourself first. Eye-rolling, sarcasm, and name-calling are the warning lights. Catch them early and swap in a direct, respectful version of the same complaint.
- Lead with kindness during disagreements, not just during good moods. This is where it’s hardest and where it matters most.
- Decide, out loud, that the relationship is worth the work. Dedication is easier to keep up when it’s named and shared rather than assumed.
None of these require a personality transplant. They take attention and repetition, which is exactly why a relationship that “isn’t easy” can still be a relationship that lasts.
When should you get help with your relationship?
If you and your partner keep having the same fight, feel more like roommates than partners, or notice contempt creeping into how you talk to each other, those are signals worth taking seriously, not signs you’re doomed. Many couples turn things around, and the earlier they start, the easier it is. If you’re not sure where your relationship stands, our guide to relationship warning signs is a useful next read, along with the marriage warning signs worth catching early.
When you want support putting these habits into practice, that’s what couples counseling is for. Our therapists help partners rebuild connection, interrupt the patterns that erode it, and learn to handle conflict without damage. You can learn more about couples and marriage counseling at Just Mind or make an appointment whenever you’re ready.
Frequently asked questions
How long do most relationships last?
There’s no single number, because it depends heavily on age, commitment level, how things started, whether repairs happen, and life stage. More useful than the average is the pattern underneath it: relationships tend to end not from a lack of love but from a buildup of unaddressed conflict and disconnection. Those are the things that respond to effort.
Can a relationship last without common interests?
Yes. Shared hobbies are a weak predictor of long-term success. Plenty of lasting couples have very different interests. What matters far more is how they treat each other across those differences, including whether they stay curious about each other rather than dismissive.
Do personality types like Myers-Briggs predict compatibility?
No. Personality frameworks can be fun and occasionally insightful, but there’s little evidence that any particular type pairing predicts whether a relationship will last. The makers of the Myers-Briggs assessment even say it shouldn’t be used to predict relationship success. Behavior in everyday moments predicts it. A quiz result does not.
What are the Four Horsemen in a relationship?
The Four Horsemen are criticism, contempt, defensiveness, and stonewalling. John Gottman’s research found these four communication patterns predict relationship breakdown, and each one has a specific antidote couples can practice.
Can a struggling relationship recover?
Often, yes. Contempt and constant conflict are warning signs, not death sentences. Couples who learn to turn toward each other, replace contempt with kindness, and recommit to the relationship frequently rebuild something stronger than what they had before. Couples counseling exists precisely because these skills can be learned.
What is the single biggest predictor of divorce?
In Gottman’s research, it is contempt, the most damaging of the Four Horsemen. The encouraging part is that contempt has a direct antidote: a steady habit of appreciation and kindness, especially during conflict.
